We are pleased to share our Q2 2026 Keystone Market Update, which explores the evolving dynamics across private markets.
For the first time in four years, we have entered a period in which our measures of the intrinsic value (IV) of assets have caught up to NAVs. This is due to a combination of public market reflation and a slow grind of below-average NAV markups. As we have covered in prior updates, a high IV relative to NAV is a critical driver of exit volume, liquidity, and overall cycle strength.
While the recent rally in IVs is encouraging, we continue to monitor several secular themes that have grown out of the last four years of underperformance and historically low distributions. Namely, the rules of the New Exit Game have proven persistent, and we are now entering a point at which the delta between our cyclical indicators (improving) and the facts on the ground (status quo, if not worse) has never been higher.
In this update, we unpack the implications of this market backdrop for both LPs and GPs. We thank you for your engagement, and we welcome your feedback.
You can view the piece at our private markets research platform, Katmai Labs (subscribe here)
